Raglan, wind right, size wrong

The CT lands at Raglan for the first time. The Corona Cero New Zealand Pro opens May 15 and runs through May 25, ten days of waiting period at Manu Bay. Light easterlies sit over the points most of the contest and the angle is locked into Manu’s window all week, but the size goes missing in the middle of the run. Then it arrives in the last 36 hours, in 23 knots from the west.

Live numbers on the Raglan forecast page.

What Manu wants

Manu Bay is the contest break, a left point on volcanic black sand off the open Tasman. It wakes up on west-southwest swell, which is what the Tasman delivers when a low spins through the Roaring Forties. Period is the lever. Under 12 s the sections don’t connect and Manu turns into a fat-shouldered take-off with nowhere to go.

Over 14 s, the wave links from the keyhole through Whale Bay below. Indicators, the longer point above Manu, only switches on when it doubles up. That takes 2 m+ on the buoy.

Wind is the other half. Raglan’s points face open ocean, so any westerly is straight onshore, and the Tasman’s prevailing breeze sits there most of the year. East through east-southeast is the offshore window. The local read is dawn before the westerly fills in.

The waiting period, day by day

Friday May 15 (Day 1). Wave height 1.3 to 1.4 m, period 14 s, swell west-southwest at 238°, slap in the middle of Manu’s window. Wind a light 3 to 8 knots out of the east, backing south in the arvo. Classic-period swell on a clean canvas. Smaller, but contestable. Power 11 to 14 kW/m, a solid average day.

Saturday May 16. Lull. Height drops to 1.1 to 1.2 m at 12.5 s, the period is mid-range rather than long-range, and power slumps to 8 kW/m. Wind stays light easterly, 5 to 8 knots. Glass over a wave that doesn’t have much to give. They’ll lay day if they can.

Sunday May 17. The cleanest swell of the window. Height holds 1.3 m, period stretches to 16.5 to 17.5 s, long-range swell from west-southwest at 246° to 251°. The number is small; the face won’t be. Wind builds to 12 to 15 knots from the east through the middle of the day, then drops back to 7 knots by late arvo. Sideshore east, not offshore east, but a long-period 1.3 m on a Tasman point breaks well overhead. Pick of the contest days.

Monday May 18. Height fades from 1.2 down to 0.9 m, period 14 s, swell still WSW. Wind 7 to 13 knots, east clocking through south-east, sideshore. Power 6 to 8 kW/m. Workable, not contestable for a CT final.

Tuesday May 19 to Friday May 22. Four days of single-digit power, 0.7 to 1.0 m, light easterlies under 8 knots through. Period stays long, 13 to 16 s, but the size has gone. Friday May 22 even reads 16.5 s on 0.75 m: long lines without juice. Ngarunui days, not contest days.

Saturday May 23. Floor of the window. Height 0.6 to 0.7 m at 14.5 s, wind has flipped to 6 to 8 knots from the northwest, sideshore through onshore. Smallest day, dirtiest breeze.

Sunday May 24. Size returns. Height jumps to 2.1 to 2.6 m at 10 to 12 s, swell WSW at 247°. Power 24 to 36 kW/m, the most energetic block of the window. Catch is the wind: 16 to 22 knots out of the southwest through west, straight onshore at the points. Big and bumpy. Heavy water if you paddle out, ugly on a webcast.

Takeaway

The pick is Sunday May 17: 1.3 m at 17 s west-southwest under a light sideshore east. Friday and Saturday are cleaner and smaller, contestable for early rounds. After that the wave drops under a metre for nearly a week of lay days.

Size returns May 24 to 25, but the same low that brings it parks a 20-knot west wind on the points. Glass without size, then size without glass.

What it looks like when it’s on

The classic Manu day is a glassy dawn, an east-southeast offshore feathering the lip, and a west-southwest swell at 14 s+ linking the keyhole right through Whale Bay. When it doubles up, Indicators turns on above and the line connects all the way down the headland. The angle this week is right. The wind is right. The size isn’t, until it is, and by then the wind isn’t.